This book tours the world to examine which nations are likely to flourish—or .. The main rule for identifying breakout nations is to understand that economic DC: World Bank, irkeraslajour.ga . The book titled Breakout Nations focuses on the factors regulating the development of nations. It talks about the pace of development when the economic and. The argument of Breakout Nations is that the astonishingly rapid growth over the last decade of the world's celebrated emerging markets is.
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International Bestseller One of Foreign Policy's "21 Books to Read in " A Publishers Weekly Top 10 Business Book “The best book on global economic. Request PDF on ResearchGate | On Jan 1, , Victoria L. Rodner and others published Ruchir Sharma, Breakout Nations (). Breakout Nations - Ruchir Sharma - Ebook download as PDF File .pdf), Text File .txt) or read book online. Security Analysis.
Such comparisions are driving an informed reader, insane. About China: If China builts a magnetic train from the middle of Shanghai to the airport and if the train is not overcrowded, it doesn't mean that China has made a wrong investment in infrastructure. Author mentions that China is today, what Japan was in s.
He neglects the size of two countries and also neglects that fact that Japan was never cheap in technological products but China was able to deliver cheap tech. Japan never invested in the African countries but China has. He says that China will face labour crisis because of the following reasons: 1 The one child policy has controlled the population 2 'Almost' all the unemployed or underemployed villagers of China have migrated to the cities.
New manpower is not available as freely as earlier. Check my emphasis on the word 'Almost'. Due to the migration of villagers into the cities, the housing price in the cities have gone up very high. Now, just consider, how can an upmarket residential price go up because of the labourers? Does he mean to say that the laborers have converted the upmarket areas into slums and that the rich doesn't have space to live?
This is partially true because Chinese economny is export oriented and it must keep the production cost low. But who has prevented China to employ the people from Mongolia? Secondly, lot of Chinese industries have already started migrating to Vietnam, Combodia and even Africa. Author has totally forgotten this fact.
Has any nation prevented it from doing this? Isn't this a world-wide phenomenon? This happens everywhere. Why single out China?
About India: Agreed, that there is a regional market in India but that doesn't mean that the global brands do well only on certain big cities in India. It is surprising that the author has linked the local politics to influence the choice of people over commodities.
The consumer tastes of India cannot be as homogenous as other countries but the global brands have same acceptance everywhere in India.
Even a child in India knows that there is more undocumented money in India than on the Govt. If you closely study the GDP of Indian states, you will find a comparable growth. Look at the per capita of Bihar. How can he say that Bihar and UP offers better economic possibilities than Tamilnadu which already has a high per capital with a steady growth rate.
It is easier grow when the base is very low compared to a higher base. About Russia: The author is not very optimistic about Russia either. Boris Yeltsin was drinking hard and firing top ministers during 90s and running a national debt. Ever wished that you were there at the beginning of This book helps you look ahead and gives you informative speculation on the next BRIC emerging market.
Worthy read, and easy to understand from the novice to the ubber economist or the savy investor. Jun 19, Anil Swarup rated it really liked it. It is a reality check on the euphoria that surrounds the emerging economies. Extremely well articulated and written in simple language even to make sense to those that do not understand the nuances of economic development.
What it reveals about countries like China and India is nothing new but is presented in a manner that it appears to be convincing. Only time will tell whether what has been predicted will come true but the book makes a very interesting reading.
Apr 19, Samantak Bhadra rated it it was amazing. Economics has always possessed that characteristic indigestible and toxic charm which renders the study or dissection of any topic, even remotely associated with it, an intensely grey-cell-intensive expedition. This breaks down the seemingly convoluted concepts of economics into understandable and soluble pieces or nuggets. Each chapter delves into the economic situation of a particular country or a geographical region. The current economic situation when coupled with the past, the predictable future, political events and bigwigs, cultural mindsets and other good and not-so-good elements makes for a heady concoction.
To extend the viewpoint, the book, itself, is synonymous to a collection of short stories where each story is equally engrossing and unique.
The book is an ode to the emerging or breakout nations of the immediate future, nations that are going to stride ahead in terms of development and stability and stand out as role models for the other nations of the world. Through logic and reasoning, it scrutinizes certain economies and gives a verdict on whether that particular nation is poised to grow or fall in the coming years. Sharma starts off with the big giant, namely China. Its growth rate is poised to slow down alongside the negative factor of an aging population.
Inflation is also a major factor that will play spoilsport to the long term meteoric growth story that is projected now. Soon after the hype about China is busted, Sharma goes on to tackle the Indian conundrum.
Besides this, poor infrastructure, corruption, policy paralysis and inflation are serious hurdles that are going to stem the apparent steaming ahead of India into the developed world. Through the examples of Mexico and Russia, Sharma highlights the destructive effects of oligarchic nations.
The infrastructure in Brazil has degraded to such an extreme level that CEOs are compelled to use helicopters for commuting from one location to another. As for the disaster story of the Eurozone, he points out that all is not doom through the examples of Poland and the Czech Republic. He also talks about the grey area of the world aka The Fourth World which is represented by countries such as the African nations, Sri Lanka, Vietnam and the others.
Although the future trajectory of these nations cannot be determined in any particular manner because of the varied volatile factors governing the economic and political machineries of the nations, Sharma throws in delectable pieces of logic supported by facts which hints at the possible demise or growth of certain countries.
The two countries that stand tall by the time the reader has completed the journey called Breakout Nations are South Korea and Turkey. While South Korea is flexible and dynamic enough to churn out world-class Asian brands, Turkey is headed by one of the most charismatic leaders of our times. The book, in itself, is a beautiful odyssey that is characterized by an in-depth knowledge about the machinations of different nations around the world. This book is highly recommended for people who wish to come to terms with the current global economic situation as the book helps the reader to compare, dissect, analyze and judge economic theories and deductions in a much simpler and digestible manner.
Apr 09, Hadrian rated it really liked it Shelves: It is hard to escape popular economic discussions without hearing the name BRIC and developing nations.
The very name - BRIC, like brick, suggests that these four nations are monolithic and identical in their intentions and progress of growth and development. This could not be more false.
The author, head of Emerging Market Equities at Morgan Stanley, offers brief vignettes of some developing nations, using both statistics, policy analyses, and an intuitive sense of what nations develop and which It is hard to escape popular economic discussions without hearing the name BRIC and developing nations.
The author, head of Emerging Market Equities at Morgan Stanley, offers brief vignettes of some developing nations, using both statistics, policy analyses, and an intuitive sense of what nations develop and which ones don't.
The best details are in the full book, but here's a good sample of what Sharma asserts: Much of the eligible rural population has moved to the cities, and they are moving from a commodity-import economy to a manufactured-goods exchange economy, more on equal footing with the US, and an attempt to develop home-grown sectors. The massive population pool may be a boon, but it must be necessary to safeguard against deficit spending and crony capitalism.
Even small-scale growth could overwhelm transportation without this necessary increase. Most Mexicans would rather leave than press for change. They have perhaps the worst aging demographic in the Western World. Only India and Egypt had higher inflation - another difficulty which should not happen in a slow recovery. Russia's only major international industries are oil and gas, and it needs to diversify.
Some nations like Romania and to a greater extent, Greece, have jack-knifed, but these are doing quite well. The Philippines has potential, if it began to dismantle the oligopolies. South Korea is rapidly rising and well, and may yet become 'the Germany of East Asia', being secure, well-educated, and diverse across a wide variety of sectors. Careful policy management is necessary. There's a LOT more in here that I've missed.
This is a very impressive book and I wish there was more. Jun 21, Parth Agrawal rated it it was amazing. Life changing book it was!! Guys I generally say this at the end that how fruitful will it be for you to read this blah blah. But I couldn't help but to start with this as I don't want to prove it to you how good a book this is. I just want to declare this and you can take my word, once you are through, even you won't ask for proof.
This is the second book I've read of Mr Ruchir Sharma and that completes both the books written by him. I would suggest that the books should be read in sequence as Life changing book it was!!
I would suggest that the books should be read in sequence as the stories are inter woven and even though some might argue that the books do not form a series, I beg to differ. Stories in both the books tell a similar story but differ in the their depiction. Breakout Nations is plain and simple, it tells the whole story about a country or a particular region like Europe, Gulf and by story I mean the economic history, present economic scenario and future economic prospects.
Chapters in this book are chronological anecdotes of countries sifted through a professional eye whereas in The Rise and Fall of Nations, a ten-rule commandment has been created which becomes a tool to judge a country based on how do they perform on each of the 10 parameters. Myths, in any field are dangerous but in the world of economics it can bring a country down and with it, the whole world.
Amongst all the myths in this field, one of the most dangerous one is myth of everlasting boom. Periodical financial crises have forcibly disciplined the world time and again and through it, people have been repeatedly reminded that there are no free lunches in this world. Let's start with the most identifiable examples: They thought the "slowdown" can be left behind if they take the "credit train" but "income stagnation and low demand" ticket collectors beg to differ.
Everyone's favorite, but they are suffering from structural inflation which itself conveys the idea that it doesn't have a bottom less pit of cheap labor anymore. Renminbi is appreciating which means their cheap exports are losing their sheen.
Vladimir Putin, arguably one of the most powerful leaders the world ever saw has proven that even visionary leaders can turn stale And many such examples are there but let's not get ahead of ourselves.
I apologize in advance as I cannot cut short the length of this review and rob it off its flavor. You will thank me later. God's own country. Famous for Christ the Redeemer, site the forest but guess what, there are other things as well for which Brazil wouldn't want to be famous for. Lack of public investments, high inflation, heavy dependence on the commodity exports, overvalued currency, to name a few has created a unique situation for Brazil known as the "Trilemma".
Let's see what this trilemma is: Trilemma consists of 3 fronts and whenever government wants to end it by addressing one front of it, the other 2 fronts escalate the problems to nullify their efforts: In the 21st century, Brazil has ridden the tide of commodity boom as high demand from china has fuelled the commodity economies and concomitantly appreciating the value of their respective currencies.
Brazilian Real got so strong that people with money in Brazil started importing expensive products from USA like cars, yachts, watches which clearly cannot be the requirement of a nation which doesn't even has its basic infrastructure at place. When a developing nation starts feeling expensive to a developed nation citizen, most probably that nation will not be the successful nation in coming time.
A vicious circle was formed between commodity exports and downslide of the economy. If you are digging out something from the Earth and making money by selling it then that source of income is not sustainable. Piling on mistakes they didn't even invest their commodity export profits into building roads, ports, education, developing manufacturing facilities etc. This led to the decrement in the competitiveness of their manufactured exports as they started to appear very expensive because of overvalued Real.
So, in order to sustain their living conditions they had to become more and more dependent on commodity exports which are up and running as long as there's demand in China. But since China's GDP growth rate has been at a record low lately, Brazil is looking at tough times ahead.
Brazilian economic history has been topsy-turvy mainly because of its old nemesis, inflation. It all started with the building of Brasilia, their national capital. The above mentioned period saw rise and fall of 5 Brazilian currencies until in , President Itamar Fanco came and put an end to all this by bringing in the currency Brazilian Real.
It's a funny story of how they actually brought in the Real and I would recommend you all to go through it once.
A lot of blame for inflation can also be given to lack of investments by the government in basic infrastructure which led to untenable prices. For instance, public transport of Brazil has sunk to such low levels that across the city, corporate heads use private helicopters to move from one headquarters to another.
Condition of roads are so poor that the price of getting the goods from the site to port is more than shipping it from port of Sao Paulo to China. So this establishes an inherent fear Brazilians have against inflation and the logical follow up is to increase the interest rates so that it remains in control. But since Brazil has a unique situation of Trilemma, this move fails every time and ironically, inflation indirectly gets increased due to this move.
Let's see. This problem is similar to honey applied to your burn and the bees are after you. In order to curb the inflation, interest rate increment is the logical step. But increasing the benchmark rates will lead to higher interest rates charged to lenders as well as paid to depositors and this will attract the foreign investors as the average payout by this emerging nation is much higher than its peers. Thus, Brazil has suffered an incontrollable inflow of foreign money which appreciates the currency encouraging imports and discouraging exports I hope you are seeing how the dots of Brazil's Bermuda Triangle are connecting.
If the outflow of this foreign money would have been made into productive avenues like importing machineries to promote manufacturing, downloading IPRs to encourage a new business avenue, then it could've been said that Brazil turned its predicament into an opportunity.
But as I mentioned earlier that this money was used to import useless items which the country didn't need. This is the level of explanation that has gone into the book and that too I've explained about only this one country. You will get to know about China, India, Russia, Europe, Gulf countries, Asian Tigers in short the whole world and anyone who is interested in this genre, should go for it like hell. I have completed this book in one of my most difficult times in life and I firmly believe what the author says: Jun 28, Diego rated it really liked it Shelves: Ruchir is a stone cold pimp.
He is head of emerging markets for Morgan Stanley and speaks so clearly and with energy He is interviewed on Bloomberg sometimes. He is very direct and doesn't muck up his explanations. I read his latest book "The Rise and Fall of Nations" and it is one of my favorites. This book proved to be a great refresher on the nations that have the necessary requirements for growth, or the recipe for failure.
His second book builds on this first one and ties his thoughts tog Ruchir is a stone cold pimp. His second book builds on this first one and ties his thoughts together into a set of rules to analyze various economies.
This book starts with BRIC and Mexico describing their economic issues, Ruchir is good at pointing out when to notice economies are not doing well and what to look for. His logic is clear and he proves his analyses by visiting the countries of interest. Based on his analyses, Poland, Czech Republic, Indonesia are setup for success. Turkey is hailed upon as a breakout nation, but recent political issues involving Erdogen may have adjusted that analysis.
South Korea has been booming tremendously in comparison to Taiwan. He calls them the gold medalist among all nations. They are killing it.
Taiwan has far too much reliance on Chinese labor, which is losing its cost advantage. What is extremely interesting is his discussions with local policy makers in Seoul.
They have been keeping their overall debt low to prepare for the impending unification of both Koreas. They anticipate absorbing the North once their regime fails. They will inherit a wealth of natural resources and a whole new workforce ready to make a normal living. I also appreciate when he adds tidbits of advice like "rules of the road", which are succes or failure signs to watch for with emerging or frontier nations.
A few interesting points: Every nation is different and their economic success or failure is relative, to each country's specific environment. View 1 comment. Mar 04, Kaushik rated it liked it. The theme of this book is one close to my heart - to try and identify the next big winners on the global stage.
The growth stories of South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and partly China are deeply inspirational ones for anyone interested in the genesis and drivers of lasting economic success. Sharma attempts to identify the next set of winners from the current crop of emerging and frontier markets. One has to give credit to the author for identifying the temporary nature of commodity booms - this The theme of this book is one close to my heart - to try and identify the next big winners on the global stage.
One has to give credit to the author for identifying the temporary nature of commodity booms - this was back in when Brazil and Russia were in the pink of financial health. Wealth creation through rent seeking has since been identified as the bane in these countries and has come back to haunt them. The author has also been prescient about the structural factors that would reduce the breakneck growth of the Chinese economy.
The structural weaknesses of the Indian economy including population pressures, institutional weakness, and rent seeking billionaires have been aptly pointed out. We have seen in the period since this book's publication that it has been truly hard to return India to a high growth path.
A combination of the benefits of the reforms of the 90s and early noughties coupled with a general global boom made us believe that we had a God given right to enjoy high growth forever - we have since had a rude awakening. The chapters on Turkey's revival, a hint of reform in Nigeria albeit marred by anecdotal analysis of Kabila's sincerity in Congo , and the sluggishness in Mexico make for interesting reading. However, there are some areas where the analysis in the book is superficial and excessively pro-market.
The author has advocated "creative destruction" including encouraging hard landings by citing examples such as the US s and South Korea and their subsequent successes; this is contrasted with the stagnation caused by zombie banks and corporations in Japan. While downturns do provide scope for tough reforms, the above argument ignores the fact that the "hard landing" in the US caused the Great Depression which was alleviated by Roosevelt through classic Keynesian stimulus, backstops for banks, and the small matter of a World War providing a huge impetus to manufacturing growth.
Another gap is to attribute the differences between the success of east Asian economies purely to market friendly reform. While this remains a factor, the structural inputs for long term success was laid in the s and 70s through massive investments in education and healthcare, wide ranging land reforms, focus on savings and investments, exposing select sectors to global competition while temporarily protecting others, and a relentless emphasis on long term competitiveness.
One only has to look at South Korea which started off by exporting construction services and basic goods, followed by ships, then steel, and is now a global leader across sectors. Each of these sectors had enjoyed some stimulus benefits from the government in the early stages of evolution. Taking issue with some expenditure on welfare in emerging economies even poorer ones in India ignores the political economy and the need to ensure a modicum of social justice the issue, of course, is in the corruption in countries from India to Brazil which makes a mockery of most welfare schemes.
On the whole, this is a decent read but not to be absorbed in isolation from other literature on the subject. Oct 31, Rishi Prakash rated it really liked it. These days, we keep seeing numerous books on emerging economies at regular interval. These are mostly written by Americans.
Of late, some Indians who have made it big in the United States have also jumped into the book-writing business. Morgan Stanley's top executive Ruchir Sharma's book 'Breakout Nations' stands out in this clutter of books. It is one of the most fascinating books on the world's new economies. I have come across very few guys who have original thoughts when it comes to writing These days, we keep seeing numerous books on emerging economies at regular interval.
This guy is definitely right up there. Let me just give an idea on the title of this book which is the basic concept. The definition of breakout nation is very modest. They are not countries that are going to become superstars but they are those who over the next three, five, possibly 10 years, which will beat expectations compared to where the consensus is, and grow faster than other countries in that league. He has gone deep into BRICS and come out with some amazing statistics but I won't talk about it here instead I will just mention the 2 countries whose name really surprised me: Czech Republic and Turkey.
They are the 2 countries to watch in the next 5 years. May 16, Rahul Gautam rated it it was ok. The book is just a summary of the key factors driving the growth of key emerging markets in the world. While the author has tried to challenge the conventional wisdom of economists about emerging markets, he himself has not been able to come up with sufficient arguments to support his conclusions. There are few generic comments regarding business and commodity cycles which are driven by intuition rather than by hard numbers and facts.
For example, the author mentions that the commodity cycle of The book is just a summary of the key factors driving the growth of key emerging markets in the world.
For example, the author mentions that the commodity cycle of the last decade would fade away, which is intuitively correct but he does not highlight the reasons on why he believes that and when does he expects that cycle to end. Clearly the book is a good read to get an overview of key economies of the world but it disappoints on providing insight which is not available in public domain already.
May 18, Shrey Goyal rated it really liked it. The most concise, non-spin-doctored, insightful guide to the new economic landscape. Completely changed the way I look at the whole 'emerging markets' phenomenon. Dec 25, Ajay Palekar rated it it was ok. Predicting the next economic miracle What is Ruchir Sharma's prediction? To be honest his answer is far less interesting than the framework and methodology he uses to follow and understand the trends and the conventional and very flawed logic and wisdom he spouts as he explains it.
Take one of his claims, "The suppressed Chinese consumer is a myth" he then cites the high consumption of Rolls Royces, Louis Vutton purses, Predicting the next economic miracle Take one of his claims, "The suppressed Chinese consumer is a myth" he then cites the high consumption of Rolls Royces, Louis Vutton purses, and other luxury products in China as counter-proof. I am appalled by the stupidity of that argument. Overall, definitely not a fan of this books ideas, but it does raise interesting questions and did have some good insights into countries and markets I am less familiar with like Malaysia and South Africa.
Thought I do not trust Sharma's word. Taking examples of both developed and developing nations, this well researched book covers how their economies are likely to shape up. Although it has become silightly outdated publish year: The book was written in and as the name suggests, it has made many macroeconomic predictions.
Many of these predictions have been spot on. But the best thing about the book is that it links political system with the economic development. If you want to have an idea of the developing world, this is the book for you. May 21, M. Raghu rated it it was amazing. Excellent take on emerging countries and frontier markets.
The writing style is engaging and research backed information on some of the countries are eye opening. A must read for any emerging market investor. Feb 10, Virat hooda rated it liked it Shelves: True Wonderer Economics ,is a fascinating study, to which i got acquainted quite late in life but it turned out to be one of those things that you instantly like Specially Macroeconomics and are surprised by the fact that you didn't come across them sooner.
And on that account Breakout nations does a bang on job, Mr. Sharma has used a LOT of research in this book, he has discussed about almost every important Nation and Area on the globe. Giving you insights and a lot to think about. It does so ,by systematically analyzing one emerging nation at a time.
Now to the negative, the book is well researched and well written. The reasoning is logical and easy to follow but the book is now 'Outdated',it's , many of the predictions and assumptions of the author didn't pan out precisely because of his initial argument,its been more than 5 years, the world dynamics has changed, 'TRUMP' leads the US ,and talks of 'Protectionism' are heard everywhere in the world, the chaos in the middle east is still to be sorted. Just because i picked up this book a bit late i couldn't give it a higher rating.
But to understand the nuances and arguments of how to actually judge an economy or a breakout country more accurately, i most definitely recommend this to anyone remotely interested in economics. The process followed by Ruchir sharma is to be studied and studied well, his rules of the road noted, Politics and Economy are not as isolated as people think, how a capable leader could breakout Nigeria or inept management doom a previously bright star like Vietnam is to be really understood, one has to look at a lot of aspects and for going that distance , and explaining it in marvelous simplicity i respect the author greatly.
This is a great work though a bit out of sync with the time but we could hardly fault the author, who states in the first chapter itself that: Jun 26, Shishir rated it it was amazing. This book is a breath-taking journey of the economic 'juggernauts' of the present times. Written by a reputed investor, it provides us with the insight of how the people , inside the industry, perceive the countries in which they plan to invest. Written in lucid manner, it explains why a nation can or can not ce a 'break-out' nation, an expression for nations which can project high economic growth in the foreseeable future.
The author focuses on the 'emerging' nations with rules and regulation i This book is a breath-taking journey of the economic 'juggernauts' of the present times. The author focuses on the 'emerging' nations with rules and regulation in place for their financial markets - like China, India, Turkey etc and the 'frontier' nations with no stringent rules for their financial institutions - like Africa, Middle East etc.
The author draws similarity of the present economic conditions with those at the time of previous recessions and bubble bursts and gives the outcome in a very intriguing manner. The book is backed up with lots of data to support the author's point of view.
In a nutshell, it is a must read for the enthusiasts in and out of the industry. Feb 12, Rahul Adusumilli rated it really liked it Shelves: One thing that strikes out is how woeful India's per capita income is, in comparison to even these countries, and how all the talk about us being an upcoming superpower is pure hogwash. America and the developed countries make an appearance towards th Featuring chapters on countries like India, China, Russia, Turkey, South Africa, Mexico, Brazil, and regions like Africa, Middle East, Central Europe, South East Asia, this books lists out the varying factors at play in various developing economies.
America and the developed countries make an appearance towards the fag end of the book. The author has great faith in America's continued economic dominance, led as it is by the Silicon valley tech giants big on innovation and handsomely aided by new incoming talents.
Ruchir Sharma, incidentally, outs himself as a right winger when he prescribes the pain-medicine for recessions- "a hard landing is essential to bouncing right back up". Corporations in trouble? Good read. Feb 09, Arvind rated it it was amazing Shelves: A lot of them r superficial cozy-reads by journalists with minimal research and recycled material. This though is a joyride by d head of 'emerging markets' at Morgan Stanley.
The author analyses the economy of countries and their prospects of growth, providing needed history and culture. So, we know of d uneasy strict secularism of Turkey, d apartheid of South Africa, d strange case of expensive Brazil, "mafia-state" Russia and so on.
The author does this without being superficial, condescending or throwing jargon and gives a deep sense of satisfaction. Also, surprisingy the book hardly had any anecdotes or conversations and yet was unputdownable. Also, i do not have any knowledge of economics and any1 who reads the newspaper would easily be able to comprehend everything. Oct 17, Ashish rated it really liked it Shelves: It's a summary of major events, policies and strategies which made breakout economies the heroes of the new world order, particularly in post crisis world.
For someone looking to know how and why BRICS flourished in last decade but are floundering now, the book is from one of the most important stakeholders. The language is fluid and is full of observations based on history and recent observations rather than too much data. One may always argue that a good historian can rewrite history and It's a summary of major events, policies and strategies which made breakout economies the heroes of the new world order, particularly in post crisis world.
One may always argue that a good historian can rewrite history and hence it's equally important to refer many sources to make own opinion, but nonetheless the book can always serve as starting guide to the growth stories we keep hearing about in every newspaper, magazine and journals.
Jul 23, Siddharth Sharma rated it really liked it.